Can North America mine enough rare earth elements?

For decades, the clean energy future seemed to depend on minerals half a world away. But a new study from the University of Michigan reveals that North America may already hold the key to its own rare earth supply chain — buried in its own backyard. Researchers Greg Keoleian and Stephen Kesler evaluated 28 sites across the continent and found that these deposits, taken together, contain enough rare earth elements to exceed United States needs for the foreseeable future. The findings, published in Resources, Conservation and Recycling, offer a hopeful counterpoint to the narrative of dependency.

Rare earth elements are the invisible backbone of modern life. They power the magnets inside wind turbines and electric vehicles, appear in the screens of smartphones, and store energy from solar panels. About half of all rare earths mined today go toward magnets alone — the components that make everything from fighter jets to clean energy infrastructure possible. As demand for these technologies accelerates, the minerals that enable them have become a strategic priority.

Currently, China controls roughly 70 percent of global rare earth mining, while the United States accounts for only about 11 percent. That imbalance has left American manufacturers vulnerable to supply disruptions and price swings. But Kesler, professor emeritus of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Michigan, says the new findings suggest a different path forward. "The bottom line is that the deposits are close enough in quality that they might be able to support a domestic supply chain with a little government support," he said.

The study's geographic findings carry particular significance for cross-border cooperation. The researchers discovered that sites in the United States tend to contain light rare earth elements — the more abundant type used in a wide range of consumer and industrial applications. Heavy rare earth elements, which are valued for their ability to stabilize magnets at high temperatures, are concentrated in Canada. Kesler framed this as a natural opportunity: "For light rare earths, the U.S. could do a good job of supplying itself, and for heavy rare earths, we would do best to cooperate with Canada."

Not every deposit is economically viable today. With the exception of Mountain Pass in California — the only currently operational rare earth mine in North America — most sites rank lower in quality than active mines in China and Australia. But Kesler and Keoleian argue that strategic investment could shift the calculus. Targeted government support, they suggest, could help develop a stable domestic industry without the boom-and-bust cycles that have historically plagued American mining.

The study arrives as global demand for rare earths is projected to climb steeply: from 91,000 metric tons in 2024 to an estimated 150,000 metric tons by 2040. That growth is being driven by the clean energy transition, electric vehicle adoption, and the expanding footprint of consumer electronics. For Kesler, the urgency is clear. "Environmentally, we don't want to do any more mining than necessary," he said, "but this is a situation in which a little bit of government oversight in terms of funding and encouragement can help develop a stable industry." The research offers not a guarantee, but a foundation — and the possibility that the continent's own geology might be enough to power its clean energy ambitions.