In Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique, most surveyed households heard warnings about approaching tropical cyclones, but fewer than half evacuated. The gap between receiving an alert and being able to act on it is one reason millions across Africa remain exposed to dangerous weather.
At least 13 million people across the continent were affected by climate-related events in 2025, according to the source material. Over the past decade, extreme weather has hit African populations disproportionately. Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought widespread flooding in February 2023 and caused more than 1,500 deaths. A drought in southern Africa in 2015 and 2016 led to crop failures and food insecurity for 40 million people.
Better forecasts alone cannot close the safety gap. Household surveys found that 90% of people in Madagascar, 80% in Malawi and 77% in Mozambique received cyclone warnings. Yet fewer than half in each country evacuated after an alert. Some people did not get warnings early enough. Others doubted the information, lacked money or transport, or were unable to leave their homes and communities.
A study led by researchers at the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment examined why warnings do not always reach people in time or lead to protective action. The team worked with academics in the United Kingdom, Europe and southern Africa. Its findings, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, set out six priorities for improving early warning systems: prepare for unprecedented weather, test systems under pressure, strengthen national weather services, involve communities in building resilience, bring local and scientific knowledge together, and improve coordination among agencies.
The recommendations put local needs at the center of emergency planning. Community participation can help make warnings more trusted and useful, while knowledge from residents can guide the actions people can realistically take. Stronger links among governments, scientists, emergency services and communication providers can also help warnings move from forecasts to practical support.
“Early warning systems require more than accurate forecasts,” said lead author Lizzie Kendon, a professor of climate science at the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment. Warnings need to reach everyone, explain the risks clearly and help people take protective steps, she said.
That challenge may grow as climate change brings extremes beyond the range of past records—and beyond what communities have previously faced. Kendon said planning must look ahead rather than rely only on experience of earlier events. The work also comes as the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All initiative approaches its 2027 deadline to protect everyone worldwide from natural hazards through early warning systems. Its central test will be whether an alert does more than arrive: it must help people act in time.