When conservation scientist Dr. Morena Ricketts imagines a protected area, she doesn’t picture an empty wilderness—she sees farmers tending crops near Costa Rica’s Osa Peninsula, Indigenous fishers navigating the coral-rich waters of the Solomon Islands, and herders guiding livestock across Kenya’s Maasai Steppe. Her new study, co-authored with 27 researchers from 14 countries and published in Nature Communications, reveals that the path to protecting 30% of Earth by 2030 will touch the lives of billions—not just ecologically, but socially. The 30x30 target, agreed upon by 196 nations in 2022, isn’t just a biodiversity milestone; it’s one of the most ambitious social planning efforts in history.
Until now, conservation has often meant setting nature apart from people—establishing remote, “high and far” parks where human presence is minimized. But expanding protection to 30% of the planet’s surface will inevitably bring conservation into populated, working landscapes. The study analyzed three different pathways to reach the target, each with vastly different human impacts. If conservation focuses solely on the most biodiverse unprotected areas, over 3.5 billion people—46% of humanity—would live within 10 kilometers of a new protected zone. That’s more than the combined populations of China, India, and the U.S. In contrast, prioritizing lands already stewarded by Indigenous peoples and local communities would involve only about 300 million people. Yet these communities often rely directly on natural resources for food, medicine, and income, making equitable implementation critical.
The research also uncovered deep overlaps between proposed conservation areas and global food systems. In some scenarios, up to half of targeted lands coincide with croplands, while others intersect with vast pastoral regions where traditional herding sustains cultures and economies. This isn’t just about drawing lines on a map—it’s about ensuring farmers can feed communities while nature thrives alongside them. The study underscores that conservation governance must be flexible: from strictly protected national parks like Yellowstone to community-managed forests in Nepal or sustainably fished marine areas in Fiji.
Crucially, the 30x30 target includes social safeguards—calling for the recognition of Indigenous rights, community tenure, and sustainable use of nature. When these are honored, conservation can create jobs, strengthen food security, and even cool the climate. But if ignored, the costs could include displacement, lost livelihoods, and deepened inequality. The study’s findings offer a roadmap: conservation must be shaped by context, not imposed from afar.
As nations move forward, the choices made today will echo for generations. Conservation that includes people isn’t just more just—it’s more likely to succeed.