Between Dec. 8, 2020, and Dec. 8, 2021, COVID-19 vaccines helped turn a $79.4 billion global investment into health and economic benefits valued at as much as $64.3 trillion. A new study covering 173 countries estimates that every dollar spent on vaccine development, manufacturing and delivery returned $81 to $810 in value.
The first year of vaccination was a crucial test. At the time, most people had little immunity to the virus, and vaccines were shown to prevent severe illness and death. Researchers have estimated that vaccines averted between 14 million and 20 million deaths in that first year. But until now, the economic gains from vaccination had not been assessed on a global scale, including the costs of developing the vaccines—not just buying doses.
Published in PLOS Medicine, the study compared vaccine costs with several measures of benefit. These included years of life gained, better quality of life through fewer hospital stays and deaths, work productivity, and health care costs avoided. The team used two approaches to value those gains: one commonly used by public agencies to compare costs and benefits, and another used in health care to estimate savings from preventing illness and death.
The researchers valued the health and economic benefits at between $6.43 trillion and $64.3 trillion. The wide range reflects the different methods used to put a value on lives and improved health. Even at the lower estimate, the benefits greatly exceeded the $79.4 billion cost of developing, making and delivering vaccines worldwide.
The investment was not borne by vaccine companies alone. Governments, including the United States, the European Union and China, supplied substantial funding that helped reduce the risks for manufacturers. Mark Jit, a professor of global health at NYU School of Global Public Health and a study author, said the rapid investments paid off in both health and economic gains. He argued that vaccine development and fair access should be priorities before and during future health crises.
The gains, however, were not shared evenly. High-income countries saw the greatest economic benefits, in part because they had earlier access, higher vaccine uptake and faster rollouts. Their older populations also faced greater risk of severe COVID-19. Many low- and middle-income countries did not have broad access until late 2021, after many residents had already caught the virus and developed some immunity.
That gap is a reminder that making vaccines is only part of preparing for a pandemic; getting them to people in time matters too. The study’s findings offer a clear case for investing early in vaccine research and production, while planning for wider access across countries. As lead author Hallie Benjamin put it, the benefits outweighed the costs within just one year—even as the unequal rollout showed where future responses can improve.