On the flatlands of eastern Azerbaijan sits a hill called Lokbatan — a mud volcano that scientists once thought grew mainly through sudden, explosive eruptions. But new research shows the real story is much quieter, and it changes how we understand these strange geological features.
A team of researchers from the University of Oslo and other institutions spent years watching Lokbatan closely. They combined field observations on the ground, satellite images taken from space, and geophysical measurements — ways of
listening to what happens underground. What they found surprised them. Instead of one big eruption adding a chunk of mud all at once, Lokbatan and similar volcanoes seem to grow through many small events, each one pushing a little more material downhill.
The researchers discovered a hidden layer beneath the surface that plays a key role. This layer is rich in water and acts almost like a thick lubricant. When small eruptions happen, they seem to wake up older mud that was already sitting on the volcano's slopes. The water-rich layer lets this old mud slide slowly downward, bit by bit, reshaping the landscape over years in ways that are hard to see from a single visit.
Adriano Mazzini, who led the study published in the journal Geology, describes this process as a kind of slow creep. Large mud flows don't come from one catastrophic burst, the researchers argue. Instead, they build up gradually through repeated small events that reactivate and push existing material down the slopes. The process is less like a explosion and more like watching a glacier inch its way down a mountain — steady, patient, and almost invisible day to day.
This new understanding matters for more than just science. Mud volcanoes exist in many parts of the world, and they can pose risks to nearby communities and infrastructure. If scientists thought these features only erupted dramatically, they might miss warning signs of slower, ongoing movement. Better knowing how these systems actually work could help experts monitor them more effectively and assess potential hazards with greater accuracy.
The findings suggest that even dramatic-seeming natural features can grow in quiet, patient ways — a reminder that not everything loud or sudden is what it appears to be.