Every year, 15 million adults die before their time from causes linked to what they eat. But a major new study suggests a different future is possible — one where the food on our plates is better for both people and the planet.
Researchers from institutions including Cornell University, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research used ten different computer models of global food systems to compare two scenarios running through 2050. In the first scenario, nothing changes much. In the second, people shift toward healthier diets, farms grow more food per acre, and food waste is cut in half.
The results, published in the journal Nature, show that transforming the way the world grows and eats food could save roughly 15 million lives each year while dramatically shrinking agriculture's environmental footprint.
"Our study shows that continuing on the current path is the more expensive option," said Hermann Lotze-Campen, who heads a research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-authored the study. "Providing healthy diets for a growing global population by 2050 would maintain the overall value of agricultural production near 2020 levels while simultaneously reducing environmental and health costs."
Today, food systems produce about one-third of all greenhouse gases that warm the planet. Half of Earth's usable land is farmland, mostly growing crops to feed livestock rather than people. Meanwhile, one-third of all food produced is lost or thrown away.
Under the transformation scenario, the models show that the world would use 9% less agricultural land by 2050 compared to keeping things as they are. Livestock production — meat and dairy — would drop in value by 60%, freeing up land and resources. Overall farm output would fall by 17%, but that decline would be offset by a 23% jump in vegetables, fruits, nuts, and legumes.
The climate benefits would be significant. Carbon dioxide emissions from farmland expansion would drop by 76%, while other heat-trapping gases from farming would fall by one-third.
Lead author Matt Gibson, who coordinated the research at Cornell University, said the changes would affect different groups unevenly. Rural economies built around raising animals could face hard times, while health and environmental benefits would spread more broadly across society.
"While the environmental and health opportunities are huge, managing structural challenges within the agricultural sector will require coherent food and agriculture policies and inclusive stakeholder dialogues," said Felicitas Beier, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute.
The researchers argue that bold policy decisions made today could protect people who might lose their livelihoods while amplifying the gains from a food system that works better for everyone.