A new study from Rutgers Health suggests that cutting nicotine in cigarettes could nearly wipe out smoking in the United States — and save millions of lives in the process.
Cigarettes contain roughly 10 to 14 milligrams of nicotine on average. The Food and Drug Administration has proposed capping that amount at just 0.7 milligrams — a level so low it would be hard to get addicted. Researchers at Rutgers University built a computer model to see what might happen if that rule became law.
The numbers were striking. Under the proposed policy, smoking rates could drop below 1 percent for every group in the country by 2040. The model projected that 1.6 million premature deaths could be avoided, and 8 million people might never develop major depression, which often goes hand-in-hand with smoking. Workers could gain an estimated $298 billion in productivity, and the broader economy could see $1.3 trillion more in consumer spending.
"When people die early because of smoking, we lose their contributions to society as consumers and as members of the working population," said Jamie Tam, an associate professor at the Rutgers School of Public Health. "Reducing smoking through nicotine reduction would help people live longer, healthier lives and allow them to continue contributing to our economy."
The researchers paid special attention to people living with major depression, a group that smokes at much higher rates than the general public. Depression can make someone more likely to start smoking, and smoking can make depression worse — a cycle that's hard to break while cigarettes remain so addictive.
"Tobacco use heavily impacts vulnerable groups," said Sarah Skolnick, a postdoctoral associate at the Rutgers Institute for Nicotine and Tobacco Studies. "The model shows that a nicotine reduction policy would directly reduce tobacco-related health disparities, specifically protecting individuals suffering from major depression."
The study used data from national health surveys to model what might happen through the year 2100, tracking how people born without smoking habits or depression might develop them over time under different scenarios.
While a federal rule remains uncertain, the researchers said states do not have to wait. Just as many states have restricted flavored cigarettes to deter young smokers, they could also move ahead with nicotine caps on their own.
"Individual states do not have to wait," Skolnick said. "They can independently implement nicotine reduction policies today to protect their residents."