In Nairobi, the next big export may not roll out of a port in a shipping container. It might leave through a laptop screen. That is the picture emerging from a new World Trade Organisation (WTO) report, which predicts that artificial intelligence could increase global trade by 40 per cent by 2040 — and that Kenya is well placed to ride that wave.
Here is why it matters. For decades, countries like Kenya built their economies around selling physical goods — tea, coffee, flowers — that had to be packed, shipped and delivered. Now the WTO says the fastest-growing part of world trade is services that never touch a truck or a boat. This includes software, accounting, financial technology, consulting, design, customer support and professional expertise. A Kenyan company can serve a client in London or Lagos entirely online, with no customs forms and no freight costs.
The numbers behind the shift are striking. The WTO reports that digitally delivered services made up 55 per cent of global services exports in 2025 — up 10 per cent in a single year. Commercial services as a whole reached 27.6 per cent of total world trade, their highest share since 2005. And these digital services have grown more than fivefold since 2005.
Africa is becoming a bigger player too. The WTO says the continent's services exports grew by 14 per cent in 2025, the fastest regional growth recorded anywhere that year. That momentum opens a new export path for Kenyan businesses — one built on talent and internet connection rather than physical borders.
Artificial intelligence is accelerating the change. The WTO explains that AI lowers the cost of creating, processing and transmitting information, and reshapes how industries work. In the most favourable scenario, where technology adoption and smart policies come together, AI could add 13.2 per cent to global GDP over the next 15 years. For a Kenyan software developer, financial-services provider, consultant or business-process outsourcing (BPO) firm — a company hired to run other companies' operations — that means more kinds of work that can be done for clients anywhere in the world.
But the report carries a warning too. Technology alone will not decide who wins. As digital trade grows, governments are layering on new rules about data, privacy and cybersecurity. The WTO notes that legitimate regulation can protect consumers and data, but that differences between national systems can raise costs, fragment digital markets and complicate cross-border business. Companies may face conflicting rules or duplicated paperwork when serving customers in different countries.
That means Kenya's digital export opportunity depends not only on producing competitive services, but also on helping businesses navigate an increasingly complex international rulebook. The WTO does not predict a specific Kenyan boom. But its global projections, combined with Africa's fast-growing services exports, point to a changing structure of trade. For a new generation of Kenyan entrepreneurs, the laptop may well be the country's most valuable export corridor.