When two-year-old Aisha sits down with her parents to answer questions about whether she can kick a ball or identify everyday objects, they're setting the stage for her school years in ways they may not realize. A groundbreaking study from researchers at the University of York and the Born in Bradford project reveals that this routine questionnaire—the Ages and Stages Questionnaire, or ASQ-3—is far more than a box-ticking exercise. It could be the key to identifying which children will thrive in the classroom and which ones need extra support before they ever step foot in primary school.
The finding matters urgently. As the UK government works toward its target of ensuring 75% of children achieve a "Good Level of Development" by 2028, educators and policymakers have been searching for practical tools to close achievement gaps before they widen. Most interventions come too late—after children start school and struggles have already taken root. This research suggests a different path: act at age two, when early support can reshape trajectories.
The numbers speak clearly. Children who scored well on the ASQ-3 at age two had more than three times the odds of being school-ready when they turned five. That's a powerful predictive signal from a simple questionnaire that asks parents straightforward questions about their child's physical abilities, understanding of language, and problem-solving skills. The link between early developmental progress and later classroom success is strong and measurable.
Yet the study, published as a preprint on medRxiv and currently undergoing peer review, also lays bare the stubborn inequalities that persist in child development. Boys were substantially less likely to meet expected developmental milestones at both ages two and five. Children growing up in the most deprived areas faced a 60% lower likelihood of being school-ready by five—a gap that demands systemic attention. The picture grows more complex when looking at ethnic backgrounds: children from South Asian communities were least likely to meet expected milestones at age two, while children from white other backgrounds were least likely to do so at age five. These disparities underline the need for culturally aware, targeted support across different communities.
Dr. Kate Mooney of the University of York's Department of Health Sciences emphasizes the practical opportunity: "The ASQ-3 can now more confidently be used to identify children who may benefit from accessing early years support, and this could support the prevention of inequalities in child development before children start school." Professor Josie Dickerson, the lead researcher, goes further, pointing out that local authorities developing their "Best Start" plans to meet the government's 2028 target should use this evidence to reimagine their approach. Rather than waiting until primary school to identify struggling learners, authorities could act on the ASQ-3 findings to connect families with early years support—speech therapy, developmental activities, or parental coaching—when children are still two.
The research team acknowledges that the current system has gaps. Not all families receive their two-year reviews, and some who do don't complete the questionnaire. Closing those gaps—ensuring every family gets access to the assessment and support—is essential if ASQ-3 is to live up to its potential. The prize is significant: thousands of children could be redirected toward success simply by acting on information already available to us at age two.