Scientists at the University of Exeter have mapped 48 Seed Transfer Zones across Brazil, creating the first evidence-based guide to planting the right seeds in the right places as the country faces a restoration imperative unlike any other on Earth. Released on International Biodiversity Day, the study tackles a deceptively simple but urgent problem: as climate shifts and millions of hectares of degraded land await restoration, planting native seeds from the wrong region—or using varieties suited to today's climate rather than tomorrow's—undermines the entire effort.
Brazil's restoration challenge is staggering in scale and complexity. The country aims to restore 12 million hectares of native vegetation by 2030, a target that demands not just ambition but precision. Lead author Mateus Silva, from the University of Exeter, framed the stakes plainly: "Meeting this challenge will require more than simply planting trees. It will require planting the right seeds in the right places." Until now, Brazil lacked the scientific framework to guide these decisions across its six major vegetation regions—the Amazon, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Pantanal, and Pampa.
The new Seed Transfer Zones account for the intricate interplay between climate, soil conditions, and plant adaptation. Each zone represents an area where seeds can thrive under current conditions. But here lies a critical insight: climate change is rewriting the map. The study projects that by 2100, between 51 and 88 percent of Brazil's land will experience "mismatches" between where seeds are currently suited and where they will need to thrive. A restoration project that ignores this reality risks planting seeds destined to fail.
The research also reveals a troubling geographical imbalance. Seed collection networks cluster heavily in parts of the Amazon, while demand for restoration—especially in the central Brazilian Cerrado savanna—is massive but seed-harvesting capacity remains limited. This supply-demand gap could become a bottleneck precisely when Brazil's restoration agenda is most critical.
What makes this work distinctive is its recognition that seed restoration is not merely an ecological challenge but a social and economic one. Community-based seed networks across Brazil—bringing together Indigenous Peoples, Quilombola communities, smallholder farmers, and Traditional Peoples and Communities—are the backbone of this work. Redário, a collaborative network of more than 30 seed organizations, coordinates these efforts while generating income for local communities. Eduardo Malta, Redário's coordinator at Instituto Socioambiental, sees the new zones as empowering: "Seed Transfer Zones help better guide production and provide greater security for the circulation and use of native seeds, strengthening seed collector networks and increasing the chances of success of restoration projects in Brazil."
The study provides more than maps. Researchers developed an interactive online platform allowing restoration practitioners, governments, NGOs, and companies to visualize current and future seed zone distributions under different climate scenarios. This open framework democratizes the data, making it accessible to anyone planning a restoration project.
Silva positioned the work as a stepping stone toward a larger vision: "We hope this study is a first step toward positioning Brazil as a global leader in large-scale, climate-resilient restoration." As climate crises deepen and land degradation spreads, Brazil's approach—grounding restoration in science, community, and adaptive foresight—offers a model for how restoration at scale can be done right.