When most of Europe is grinding through a period of slow growth, a handful of smaller nations are racing ahead. According to the International Monetary Fund, five European economies are set to outpace the wider continent by a wide margin over the next five years.
The eurozone is projected to grow by just 1.2% a year on average between 2027 and 2031. But Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine, Kosovo, and Malta are all forecast to expand at more than double that rate, turning a modest outlook into something far brighter.
Moldova is perhaps the most striking story. The small Eastern European nation, which borders war-torn Ukraine, is expected to grow by 3.5% annually through 2031, with 2028 reaching 3.7%. Just two years ago, the country was barely growing at all — dealing with conflict nearby, energy shortages, and a severe drought. The turnaround came from two main sources: EU money pouring in after Brussels granted candidate status in 2022 and opened membership talks in 2024, and domestic reforms tied to that EU process. Rising wages and money sent home by Moldovans working abroad also helped fuel household spending. The IMF praised the recovery, noting it was driven by a good harvest, strong domestic demand, and substantial EU financing. The government, however, knows it cannot let up on reforms.
Serbia sits just above Moldova with 3.52% average annual growth projected, and unlike most countries, its momentum builds toward the end of the decade, peaking around 2030-31. Next year, Belgrade hosts Expo 2027, a world fair expected to draw millions of visitors and sparking a major construction boom — highways, railways, and city upgrades. Alongside that, Chinese-backed copper mining and expanding manufacturing are feeding the export base. The IMF says Serbia has handled its economy carefully, bringing down inflation while keeping public finances in check.
Ukraine's forecast is a reconstruction story. The IMF projects 3.8% average annual growth, with 2028 reaching 4.2%, but this depends entirely on the war winding down. If fighting continues, growth could drop to just 1%. The World Bank estimates rebuilding Ukraine could cost nearly $600 billion — a massive opportunity if peace takes hold.
Kosovo is expected to grow at around 4% per year, driven by household spending, public projects, money from its diaspora working in Germany and Switzerland, and a young workforce. The IMF says EU support could give growth an extra push. The challenge is building an export economy rather than relying on imports.
Malta tops the list, forecast to grow by nearly 4% annually. The island has already been running hot for a decade, averaging nearly 7% annual growth thanks to tourism, online gaming, and financial services.
These five nations show that even in uncertain times, some places are finding their footing — and growing.