Paraguay tops a ranking that has nothing to do with penalty kicks. Researchers at the University of Reading have created "The Real Scoreline," a climate performance card for all 48 nations competing in global football this summer—a scoreboard that measures something far more consequential than goals. Using six climate indicators drawn from leading global datasets, the team has assigned each country a score out of 99 based on how it stands against emissions, fossil fuel dependence, heat stress, projected warming, precipitation patterns, and net-zero commitments.
The timing is deliberate. As millions of spectators travel to stadiums and players take the pitch, extreme heat will reshape the tournament in ways traditional scorecards never capture. Some nations have already begun paying the climate penalty, and others face mounting risks. Yet climate change often feels distant—hard to visualize, harder still to relate to. By packaging climate data into familiar "playing cards" emblazoned with colorful climate stripes that show each nation's progressive heating, the University of Reading's climate and weather experts have found a way to make the data speak to football fans everywhere.
Paraguay ranks highest at 75 points, boasting low carbon emissions per person, stable projected rainfall, and an ambitious net-zero target of 2030. England and Scotland tie for second at 73 points, scoring well for low heat stress and stable temperatures, though their high fossil fuel dependence limits their ranking. New Zealand places third at 72, benefiting from relatively low projected warming and among the lowest heat stress exposure in the tournament, despite dragging emissions per capita. Austria rounds out the top tier at 71, standing out for one of the most stable rainfall patterns and a 2040 net-zero commitment.
The bottom of the table tells a starkly different story. Saudi Arabia scores lowest at just seven points, combining the most severe projected warming with the highest fossil fuel dependence and a net-zero target not until 2060. Qatar ranks 24 points with the tournament's highest per capita carbon emissions at 40 tons—more than double its nearest rival—and near-total fossil fuel dependence. The United States scores 26, producing more than 14 tons of carbon emissions per person and standing as the only competing nation with no net-zero target at all. Iraq sits at 30 points, nearly entirely fossil fuel-dependent with severe projected warming and rainfall disruption. Iran ranks 33, facing severe warming with 98 percent of its energy from fossil fuels.
Professor Hannah Cloke, Regius Professor of Meteorology and Climate Science at Reading, frames the challenge plainly: some countries are already paying the climate penalty, and there is little extra time left to act. Yet she frames The Real Scoreline not as doom, but as an opportunity—a way to translate robust climate data into a format familiar enough to spark conversations in pubs, at home, wherever fans gather. Each nation's card invites comparison, debate, and engagement with what may be the defining challenge of our time.
The Real Scoreline cards are available to download from the University of Reading website. Throughout the summer, climate profiles will power head-to-head comparisons, allowing audiences to explore "the score behind the score" and understand the forces shaping each nation's standing—not just in football, but in the far longer match against climate change.