Elena Gutiérrez has lived in Phoenix for 34 years. She's watched summer temperatures climb, spent more evenings indoors, and learned to keep a spare car's radiator hose in her garage—just in case. But pack up and leave? Not a chance. "My family is here, my neighborhood is here," she said. "Heat or not, this is home."
A new study from Florida Atlantic University suggests Elena isn't alone in her stubbornness. Far from being driven out by rising temperatures, Americans are staying put—and when they do move, it's economic opportunity, housing costs, and quality of life that pull them toward new destinations, not climate alone.
Published in the journal Sustainability, the research drew on IRS migration records from 2020 to 2022, U.S. Census data, and climate measurements from NOAA and the CDC to analyze how temperature changes influence where people relocate. The findings upend a common assumption: that extreme heat would push Americans to flee hotter regions en masse.
"As extreme temperature anomalies increase, we don't see more people leaving," said Yanmei Li, Ph.D., senior author and associate professor in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at FAU. "Instead, fewer people are moving in—especially to unusually hot areas—slowing population growth. It's less about people being pushed out and more about places becoming less attractive."
The Sun Belt is a case in point. Despite being among the regions experiencing the most pronounced warming, Florida, Texas, and Arizona continue attracting new residents by the thousands. On average, U.S. counties saw temperatures rise about 1.9°F between 2017 and 2021 compared to the 1901-2000 baseline, with some areas exceeding 3°F of warming. Yet population growth in these regions has barely flinched.
The researchers did identify a potential "tipping point" around 2.6 to 2.7°F of warming, beyond which migration patterns begin to shift. Even then, the effect remains modest—people aren't streaming out of hotter counties; they're simply less enthusiastic about moving in.
But the findings carry a cautionary note. If rising heat doesn't trigger mass migration, many people may remain in place out of circumstance rather than choice—locked in by financial constraints, family ties, or simply the weight of a life built somewhere. The researchers call these "trapped populations," and they worry these communities, particularly lower-income ones, could face mounting climate vulnerabilities without the resources to adapt or relocate.
The warming itself is highly uneven. The strongest temperature increases have hit the Southwest, Southeast, and parts of the Northeast, with Mesa, Ouray, San Juan, and Montrose counties in Colorado among the most affected. Altogether, approximately 394 U.S. counties have already exceeded 2.6°F of warming, and about 121 counties now surpass 3°F.
What the research ultimately reveals is not a story of climate-driven exodus, but one of resilience and inertia—people adapting, staying, and navigating warming realities in place. The question now is whether that resilience will be matched by the infrastructure and support systems they'll need as temperatures continue to rise.