When Peter DeSantis speaks about the future of computing, he does so with the quiet confidence of someone who’s helped build the infrastructure behind some of Amazon’s most transformative technologies. Just months into his role leading Amazon’s new AI and quantum computing division, DeSantis made a bold forecast on CNBC: the world will see its first commercially useful quantum computers in the next five to seven years. That timeline, he believes, marks the beginning of a new era—one where quantum machines begin solving real-world problems that classical computers simply can’t handle.
This prediction matters because, despite years of hype, quantum computing has remained largely experimental. The promise lies in qubits—quantum bits that can exist as zero, one, or both at once—enabling machines to process vast combinations of data simultaneously. But stability, scalability, and error correction have held the technology back. Amazon’s own entry into the hardware race, a chip called Ocelot unveiled last year, is specifically designed to tackle error correction, one of the field’s thorniest challenges. DeSantis draws a parallel to Moore’s Law, the principle that semiconductor power doubles roughly every two years. He envisions a similar trajectory for quantum: slow at first, then accelerating rapidly as systems grow more robust.
What sets DeSantis’ outlook apart is its precision. While Microsoft has targeted 2029 for a commercially viable machine and Google’s quantum team has suggested five years for practical applications, DeSantis positions Amazon’s expectation firmly in the middle—between 2029 and 2031. Even Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who once estimated 15 years as optimistic, later softened his stance, reflecting the uncertainty still surrounding the field. Yet DeSantis remains focused on near-term impact: early applications in quantum chemistry and material science, where simulating molecular behavior exceeds classical computing limits. These are the kinds of problems that could unlock breakthroughs in drug discovery, clean energy materials, and catalyst design—areas where even small gains could have massive ripple effects.
Amazon isn’t alone in this race. Giants like IBM, Google, and Microsoft, along with dozens of startups, are pouring resources into quantum development. But by integrating quantum research with its AI and chip design efforts, Amazon is positioning itself to build end-to-end systems that could one day run on quantum-enhanced infrastructure. DeSantis doesn’t claim quantum computers will replace classical ones—instead, they’ll tackle specialized problems with unmatched efficiency. As the field inches closer to utility, the next half-decade may well determine which companies lead the charge into this new computational frontier.
If DeSantis is right, we’re not just waiting for a faster computer—we’re on the verge of a tool that could reshape how we understand the building blocks of our world.