When Thomas Björkman launched the East Coast Broccoli Project in 2010, many farmers thought he was crazy. Broccoli was a California crop, everyone knew that. But Björkman, a professor emeritus of horticulture at Cornell AgriTech, saw a problem brewing: America's favorite vegetable was grown almost entirely in one parched state, leaving the entire country vulnerable when water ran short.
Now, fourteen years later, his vision is paying off. Cornell researchers have developed a supply chain model showing that expanding broccoli production across 10 Eastern states — from Maine down to Florida — can lower costs and make America's vegetable supply much safer from drought.
"This is a way to minimize the risk and cost for everyone," said Bingyan Dai, a doctoral student at Cornell who led the study, published in the journal Agribusiness.
The numbers tell the story. California grows most of the broccoli Americans eat, but water shortages there are getting worse. When the researchers modeled what would happen if the East Coast picked up more of the slack, they found something surprising: under severe drought conditions, shifting production eastward could reduce annual supply chain costs by 1.5% — and cut transport distances within the Eastern market by roughly 20%.
Miguel Gómez, a professor of food marketing at Cornell who co-authored the study, said the goal was to prove the industry could stay competitive even as it moved production away from California. "We wanted to show that the industry could still be competitive and shift production from California to different parts of the U.S., including the East Coast, in response to droughts," Gómez said.
The trick was figuring out how to keep broccoli flowing year-round. Unlike a single California farm, the East Coast has 10 different states, each with its own growing season. The model revealed the optimal rotation: Florida and Georgia grow broccoli only in winter; by February, production shifts north to South Carolina; and as summer arrives, Maine — with its short, cool growing period — takes over with a late-summer harvest.
"The beauty of broccoli on the East Coast is you can have a system so the region is able to supply product year-round," Gómez said.
The East Coast Broccoli Project has already come a long way. Since 2010, it has grown into a $120 million industry, requiring new broccoli varieties bred specifically for Eastern soil, plus networks of farmers, packers, distributors, and retailers working together.
California and Texas won't disappear from the broccoli map — they've been growing it for good reason. But having a second major growing region means American shoppers won't be left empty-handed if the West runs dry. The researchers say the model could also apply to other vegetables facing similar water risks.
"We do think our model can be generalized to other crops, which face similar issues and increasing challenges from drought and water scarcity when production is concentrated in one state," Dai said.