In 1980, researchers counted about 1.2 million people of Middle Eastern or North African origin in the United States using ancestry and related clues; by 2024, that estimate had grown to 5.2 million. A narrower count, based on ancestry alone, put the population at 3.1 million that year, showing how much the total depends on which information is included.
The gap matters because federal forms have not offered a separate Middle Eastern or North African, or MENA, race category. For decades, the U.S. government classified people who reported origins such as Lebanese, Iranian or Egyptian as White. That label may not match how people see themselves or how they experience life in the country. Without a distinct category, their numbers and needs can be harder to see in national data.
Pew Research Center reached its 2024 estimates by looking at public data and different measures of identity. The larger estimate combined ancestry with other factors, including birthplace, language and family relationships. Race was also part of that broader estimate in 2024 only. The ancestry-only count was 3,095,000, while the estimate using ancestry and other factors was 5,197,000.
Both measures show growth over time. The ancestry-and-other-factors estimate rose from 1,231,000 in 1980 to 2,590,000 in 2000, then reached 3,322,000 in 2010 and 4,617,000 in 2021. The ancestry-only figure also climbed, from 810,000 in 1980 to 1,692,000 in 2000 and 2,927,000 in 2021. These are estimates built from census and American Community Survey records, not a single official count of everyone who identifies as MENA.
A change to federal standards could make future figures more direct. In 2024, the government updated its rules for collecting race and ethnicity data and added a MENA category for federal statistics. The Census Bureau says the change should produce more accurate information. Such data can help shape decisions, including how congressional districts are drawn and how government resources are distributed. MENA community groups had long called for a separate category to improve their visibility.
The planned rollout is not guaranteed to happen on schedule. The standards were set to be used by March 2029, but the Trump administration has delayed the revisions twice. It has also recently proposed removing all race and ethnicity questions from the 2030 census. That leaves the timing and future of the new category uncertain.
For now, the available data offer two useful views: a narrower count tied to reported ancestry and a broader estimate that draws on several clues. Both show a growing population, and both underline why the way the country asks about identity can shape what it sees.