When Zhu-Jun Wang talks to homeowners about preparing for wildfires, she often hears the same hesitation. Even people who know the danger is real still put it off, squeezed by costs or waiting for their neighbors to go first.
That's a real problem for communities trying to protect themselves. When some people do the work of clearing vegetation or upgrading their roofs while others sit it out, those free-riders still benefit from their neighbors' efforts. This behavior, what social scientists call "free-riding," leaves whole neighborhoods less safe than they could be.
Now, researchers at Washington State University have developed a mathematical model that could help communities find the right incentives to change that pattern. The team, led by Ji Yun Lee, an associate professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, used a branch of math called game theory to figure out how government agencies and homeowners might work together better.
The research found something useful: there appears to be a specific subsidy level that convinces people to take action. Below that threshold, many homeowners will hold back. But once the incentive is sufficient, people start participating, and that's when things really change.
"Once the subsidy provided by the government is enough and larger than a certain threshold, the homeowner will change their decisions," Wang explained.
The researchers also discovered that early participation matters enormously. If only a few households take action at the beginning, wildfire prevention efforts may slowly disappear—others see little reason to act, and the community stays vulnerable. But if enough households get involved early, others tend to follow. The protection spreads.
States like California and Oregon already have subsidy programs encouraging homeowners to prepare their properties or manage vegetation for fire season, but their success varies widely. This new model could help communities design smarter incentives that actually work.
The researchers plan to combine their game theory formulas with information gathered from homeowner surveys and interviews with local officials. Their goal is to build a computer simulation where community leaders can test different policies before implementing them—trying out various subsidy levels and seeing which ones might actually get people to prepare.
"Wildfire risk is a multidisciplinary problem," Lee said. "Just using engineering solutions may not solve it. Only by combining different perspectives can we provide truly effective solutions for wildfire resilience."
As wildfires grow more frequent across the United States and more people move into fire-prone areas, tools like this one could help communities protect themselves without waiting for disaster to strike first.