In the first months of 2026, American entrepreneurs are opening businesses at a pace not seen since the years following the COVID-19 pandemic — and their optimism is outpacing the economic uncertainty that surrounds them. Late 2025 saw 230,000 more small businesses launch than the year before, a 1.9% increase that signals resilience even as international trade policies and energy prices continue to create headwinds across the country.
The surge reflects something deeper than mere numbers. According to research by Ksenia Bushmeneva in the TD Economics report "U.S. Small Businesses Adapt to Shifting Economic Tides," small business owners — those running companies with fewer than 100 employees — are actually reporting stronger performance than they did a year ago. In the first quarter of 2026, a noticeably larger share rated their operations as average, above average, or excellent compared to the same period in 2025. They are, quite simply, holding their own in a landscape that shifts almost monthly.
The evidence of this momentum extends to lending. Applications for U.S. Small Business Administration loans jumped 11% in fiscal 2025, while the total dollars approved climbed 20%. These aren't vanity metrics — they reflect real capital flowing into real ventures.
Two sectors dominated the new business formation story: healthcare and social assistance, and professional and technical services. Together, they accounted for two-thirds of all new businesses created last year. The healthcare surge reflects a structural shift in American demographics. The number of Americans over age 75 has risen 25% since 2019, creating genuine demand for elder care services, home assistance, and related support. Bushmeneva notes this growth directly tracks with labor market data showing the healthcare sector responsible for most of last year's job gains. Professional and technical services — encompassing legal, accounting, marketing, software, scientific, and engineering firms — added another 15% of all new business openings.
Yet the picture is not uniformly bright. Small business openings in artificial intelligence and technology sectors slowed considerably in 2025 compared to 2024. Despite AI's dominance in headlines and growing adoption across business operations, fewer entrepreneurs appear to see an entry point into the industry. It's a reminder that headline-grabbing sectors don't always translate into accessible opportunities for founders with limited capital.
What comes next may depend on factors beyond any single business owner's control. Business applications show a notable uptick heading into mid-2026, suggesting the momentum could accelerate. Tax law changes and rising small business adoption of AI tools may increase owner appetite to invest in growth and expansion. Meanwhile, the persistent headwinds remain real: inflation hasn't disappeared, healthcare costs continue climbing, and finding qualified workers remains a widespread challenge.
Small businesses have always been engines of American community building and economic vitality. In 2026, they're proving they can thrive even when the broader economic picture looks murky. Whether that optimism holds will depend partly on whether the policy environment continues to support their ambitions — and partly on the grit and adaptability that has always defined American entrepreneurship. The numbers suggest both factors are currently working in their favor.