Every year, airplanes around the world burn roughly 100 billion gallons of jet fuel. By 2050, that number is expected to jump to 165 billion gallons. Now, researchers at the National Laboratory of the Rockies have released a NASA-funded report exploring what might power all those planes — and the answers might surprise you.
The report, titled "An Overview of Potential Future Aviation Energy Carriers," examines five different fuels that could one day supplement or replace the traditional jet fuel used today. The research was led by Kristi Moriarty, a senior vehicle and infrastructure analysis researcher at the laboratory.
One of the most promising options is something called SAF, short for sustainable aviation fuel. Unlike regular jet fuel, which comes from oil, SAF is made from things like used cooking oil, animal fats, agricultural waste, and even algae. It can already be mixed directly into existing aircraft fuel — up to 50% of what a plane needs — without any changes to planes or airports. The technology has been commercially available since 2016.
Yet despite its availability, SAF currently makes up only about 1% of all jet fuel used worldwide. The main obstacle is cost. SAF rarely sells for less than $6 per gallon, while regular jet fuel has recently climbed above $4 per gallon. That price gap has kept many airlines from switching over.
Still, Moriarty sees real possibility. Her team estimates that enough raw materials — things like crop residues and cooking oils — exist to produce 132 billion gallons of SAF per year by 2050. That would cover 80% of the world's expected jet fuel needs.
"With more research into emerging energy carriers, we could give the aviation industry the flexibility it needs to meet these rising demands — and with domestically produced fuels, not imported ones," Moriarty said.
One concrete example of this potential playing out: The Massachusetts Port Authority recently asked the National Laboratory of the Rockies to study whether New England could produce its own SAF for 10 local airports. Researchers found the region has plenty of raw materials to produce up to 850 million gallons of fuel per year.
The report also looks at three other fuels — liquid hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, and liquefied ethane — which are stored at extremely cold temperatures to stay liquid. These options would require entirely new fueling equipment at airports and new types of planes to use them, which makes switching over much harder and slower.
Ultimately, whether these new fuels take off will depend on continued investment, government support, and whether prices can come down far enough to compete with traditional jet fuel.