In labs from Cambridge to California, scientists have proven that fusion—the same reaction that lights up the stars—can happen here on Earth. But now comes the harder question: Can it also make financial sense?
A team of MIT researchers thinks they have part of the answer. Professors Dennis Whyte and Andrew Lo have developed a 10-parameter framework designed to answer one key question: Can a fusion power plant actually make money?
"Fusion has been proven to work as a science," says Whyte, a professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT. "Now we have to be honest about whether it can work as a business."
Fusion energy works by smashing light atoms together to release massive amounts of heat, which can then generate electricity. In 2022, scientists at the National Ignition Facility in Livermore, California achieved a major milestone: they got more energy out of a fusion reaction than they put in. But proving a technology works in a lab and making it profitable enough to replace coal or natural gas are two very different challenges.
The new framework, published in the Journal of Fusion Energy, borrows an idea from the 1950s called the Lawson Criterion. That rule tells scientists when a fusion reaction produces more energy than it consumes—a measure called "plasma Q." Whyte and Lo have created something similar for economics: a formula they call "economic Q," which measures whether a power plant earns more money than it costs to build and run.
The 10 parameters span physics, engineering, and finance. Some track things like how efficiently a plant converts fusion heat into usable energy. Others measure how long critical components last inside a reactor, since replacing parts costs money. Still more look at construction expenses and potential revenue from selling electricity.
The researchers say this tool is "completely agnostic" to the technology used. Whether a company builds a plant using powerful magnets or giant lasers, the same 10 questions apply.
Whyte brings deep experience to the problem. He previously led MIT's Plasma Science and Fusion Center and co-founded Commonwealth Fusion Systems, one of the leading companies in the fusion industry. He and Lo also started Rutherford Energy Ventures, a consulting firm that is now working with the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory to build a research consortium for new fusion projects.
The goal, Whyte says, is simple: make fusion energy cheap enough to compete with fossil fuels and help fight climate change. "If we want this technology to actually be meaningful in the world economy, we have to start getting straight with ourselves about these topics," he said.
Lo adds that understanding the economics is crucial for attracting the billions in investment needed to bring fusion from lab experiments to real power plants. "It's challenging to reduce complex scientific and engineering requirements to economic consequences," he says. "But if we don't do that, we're not going to get the funding we need to achieve the impact we want."
With this framework, the MIT team hopes to give investors, policymakers, and engineers a clear picture of what fusion power would need to look like—and how close the technology is to finally reaching the market.