In Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in 2018 knocked out the Panau coal plant entirely. Engineers had to rebuild and repair 1,192 distribution units to restore power. Yet the province's own energy plan still calls for adding 2.25 gigawatts of new coal capacity by 2030. A new report from energy research group Ember suggests a better path forward.
The study finds that distributed solar, wind, and battery storage networks across Southeast Asia can withstand climate disasters far better than the fossil fuel plants that currently dominate the region. About 64% of ASEAN's installed power capacity still comes from fossil fuels, leaving millions of people exposed when disasters strike.
Southeast Asia faces some of the highest disaster risks on Earth, from earthquakes to typhoons. Ember's analysis shows two main threats to power systems: gradual climate stress that slowly reduces how much energy plants can produce, and sudden disasters that can destroy generation and transmission infrastructure completely. Distributed renewable networks handle both threats better because damage can be contained without shutting down the entire system.
One striking finding: even under the most extreme weather scenarios predicted for 2030, wind and solar generation across ASEAN will vary by less than 1% from their normal output. That stability beats thermal and nuclear plants, which face bigger losses even under milder warming.
In the Philippines, the island province of Catanduanes has suffered repeated blackouts after typhoons because it relies on an isolated, diesel-dependent grid. A planned power line connection to the larger Luzon grid is projected to supply up to 22% of Catanduanes's electricity by 2030, helping the island recover faster when the next storm hits.
In Vietnam, outdated grid infrastructure meant that about 405 gigawatt-hours of solar power had to be thrown away in 2020, equivalent to wasting enough clean energy to power hundreds of thousands of homes. The financial cost was roughly $26 million. The report says upgrading transmission lines alongside battery storage would capture more solar power while making the whole grid tougher against disruption.
Looking at Sulawesi specifically, Ember's modeling shows that installing 600 megawatts of solar paired with battery storage could replace 250 megawatts of planned coal capacity, saving 1.4 terawatt-hours of coal generation each year while also being faster to build and easier to repair after a disaster.
Dr. Dinita Setyawati, a senior energy analyst at Ember, said ASEAN countries have seen wave after wave of natural disasters, and power systems need to become more resilient to support economic growth. She argues that expanding renewables and strengthening grids should be central to policy decisions across the region, not afterthoughts.
The report calls for integrating energy planning into ASEAN's existing disaster management agreements and investing in grid connections, flexibility, and storage so renewables can work together as one reliable network. With intensifying climate risks across the region, the researchers say building power systems that can withstand, adapt, and quickly recover from shocks must become a priority.