When Hurricane Harvey churned toward the Texas coast in 2017, emergency managers in Galveston didn’t just guess which neighborhoods to evacuate — they opened HURREVAC, a software fed by over a decade of research from Texas A&M University. For millions living along the Gulf Coast, that data now means the difference between safety and disaster when storms strike.
Hurricanes don’t wait, and neither can evacuation plans. That’s why Walter Peacock and his team at Texas A&M have worked since 2009 with local governments, NOAA, FEMA, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to build smarter, science-backed evacuation zones. They model storm surges based on wind speed, storm path, and forward speed, then map exactly where floodwaters are likely to reach. This isn’t theoretical — it’s used in real time when a storm threatens.
Their work covers high-risk areas like the Rio Grande Valley, the Coastal Bend, and Southeast Texas. Using GIS mapping, the team identifies vulnerable neighborhoods — especially those with elderly residents, limited transportation, or mobile home populations — and overlays that with road networks and shelter locations. The result? Clear evacuation zones labeled A, B, C, and beyond, so people know whether they must leave — and officials know how long it will take.
A key tool born from this collaboration is the Real-time Evacuation Planning Model (RTEPM), tested against 88 different storm scenarios developed with public agencies across the region. Darrell Borchardt from the Texas A&M Transportation Institute says the model gives “a reasonable estimate of evacuation clearance times” — critical for deciding when to issue orders. Those estimates are now built into HURREVAC, the go-to system for emergency managers during hurricane season.
But even the best plan fails if people don’t follow it. That’s why David Bierling leads behavioral studies on how residents respond to warnings. One summit brought together top evacuation researchers who’ve studied actual events like Hurricanes Rita and Ike. Their insights help shape not just routes, but messaging — ensuring alerts reach people in ways they understand and act on.
Douglas Wunneburger, co-leading from Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, explains how draft zones follow highways and natural boundaries, then get refined with local knowledge. "We look at where inundations are likely," Peacock adds, "and that helps them develop their evacuation zones." It’s a blend of science and community input that keeps improving.
Today, this interdisciplinary effort continues, linking engineers, urban planners, and emergency responders. As climate change brings stronger storms, having a plan grounded in data — and human behavior — becomes even more vital. For Gulf Coast families, it means more time, better routes, and greater peace of mind when the next hurricane approaches.