We can finally measure the damage each new coal, gas or oil project will do to people and nature

When 876 million tonnes of carbon dioxide pour into the sky from a single gas project, someone should count the cost. Now, for the first time, we can.

For decades, fossil fuel projects have been approved with a familiar excuse: each one is just a 'drop in the ocean' of global emissions. But scientists have shattered that argument with a powerful new tool called the Carbon Impacts Tracer. Developed by researchers across Australia and the UK, it links the emissions from any coal, gas, or oil project directly to real-world harm—like heat deaths, coral loss, and melting glaciers.

The breakthrough comes from connecting three dots: how much carbon a project will emit, how much extra warming that causes, and what damage that warming brings. The science is solid. For every trillion tonnes of CO₂, the planet warms about 0.45°C. Using this, the tool calculates the precise impact of even one project. It draws only on peer-reviewed studies with strong evidence, which is why it currently tracks eight types of harm—from crop losses to glacier melt.

Take Woodside’s proposed Browse to North West Shelf gas project in Western Australia. Over its lifetime, it will release 1,597 megatonnes of CO₂. The tool shows this will warm the planet by 0.00072°C and expose nearly 200,000 more people to an extra week of dangerous heat every year. Or look at ExxonMobil: its projected emissions between 2024 and 2050—5,245 megatonnes—will drive 127km² of glacier melt.

The implications are far-reaching. This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about accountability. Communities, courts, and investors can now see exactly who is responsible for what damage. The tool is open-source, meaning anyone can plug in emissions data and get a report backed by science.

Already, it’s being used to assess five proposed Australian projects and one in the UK. And as more research becomes available, the tool will expand to track heat deaths beyond Europe and other impacts we can now measure but not yet fully quantify.

This changes everything. No longer can companies claim their projects don’t matter. Each tonne of CO₂ has a human and ecological price—and now, we can name it.